Should I buy SMH stock in 2025?

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At HelloSafe, our expert has been closely monitoring the performance of SMH for over three years. Every month, hundreds of thousands of users in Singapore rely on us to analyze market trends and spot the best investment opportunities. Our analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. In line with our ethical charter, we have never been, and will never be, compensated by SMH.

What is SMH?

How much is SMH stock?

The price of SMH stock is rising this week. As of now, SMH trades at USD 223.40, up 0.65% over the last 24 hours and showing a weekly gain of 2.00%.

The fund commands a market capitalization of USD 19.81 billion, with a three-month average daily volume of 8.37 million shares. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 33.7, while the current dividend yield is 0.48%, and the stock’s beta is 1.43, indicating above-average market volatility.

Investors in Singapore should note, SMH’s higher beta means it can see sharp price movements, offering both opportunities and risks in the semiconductor sector.

Our full analysis on SMH stock

We have conducted a comprehensive review of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), leveraging its latest financial results alongside a rigorous analysis of its three-year performance trajectory. Our evaluation integrates an array of financial metrics, technical signals, live market conditions, and comparative insights on global competitors, synthesized through proprietary algorithms for a holistic view. Given these findings, the critical question emerges: does SMH now represent an optimal strategic gateway into the semiconductor sector for forward-looking investors in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

SMH’s recent price movement underscores its resilience and the powerful tailwinds supporting the semiconductor industry. As of May 10, 2025, SMH trades at $223.40, having posted a robust +5.96% gain over the past month and a +2.00% increase on a weekly basis—signs of sustained investor confidence and improving market sentiment. While its 6-month and year-to-date returns remain slightly negative at -10.03% and -7.75% respectively, this reflects broader sector volatility rather than company-specific weakness, especially as SMH retains a +1.21% gain over the past year. The ETF’s sizeable rebound from its 52-week low of $170.11 further illustrates the supportive dynamics at play, with a climb of over 31% from those levels.

• Renewed AI demand: Particularly beneficial for leaders like NVIDIA, which comprises 20% of the fund, AI’s explosive uptake continues to underpin sector revenue.
• Improved supply chains: Ongoing investments in U.S. and European semiconductor manufacturing have enhanced production reliability.
• Cyclical recovery: After a challenging 2023-24, a rebound in end-market demand is evident across cloud, automotive, and consumer electronics.
• Favorable macroeconomic environment: Tech-specific policy initiatives and global digitalization efforts bode well for semiconductors, while U.S. and Asian economies maintain supportive fiscal stances.

While global trade tensions and export controls persist as overhangs, the sector’s centrality to high-growth verticals positions SMH favorably in a world increasingly driven by advanced computing, AI, and IoT integration.

Technical Analysis

Technically, SMH appears primed for potential upside, supported by several key metrics:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current 14-day RSI stands at 60.66—neutral, but trending upward, suggesting room for acceleration before overbought levels are approached.
• MACD (12,26): The positive MACD reading of 3.10 signals growing bullish momentum, reinforcing the case for a sustainable rally.
• Moving averages:
• Short-term (EMA5 at 220.05, EMA10 at 216.22, EMA20 at 212.22) and mid-term (EMA50 at 215.73) are all generating buy signals, indicating solid near-term support.
• Price is currently +7.55% above the SMA20 and +5.01% above the SMA50, evidencing positive momentum.
• While the price is just below its SMA200 (-5.53%), this proximity to long-term support levels suggests a potential base has formed.

SMH’s price action near key support levels ($221.81, $220.21, $218.43) and well-defined resistance points ($225.18, $226.96, $228.55) offers technical clarity, with a pivot at $223.58 serving as the current inflection zone. Sustained trading above these supports may serve as the launchpad for a renewed bullish phase.

The short-term momentum, reinforced by improving technicals and significant volume, supports an optimistic stance that SMH is entering a window of attractive technical positioning—particularly for those seeking entry ahead of a possible cyclical upturn.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, the SMH ETF stands on a foundation of quality, innovation, and sector leadership. A closer look yields several positives:

• Revenue growth and profitability (portfolio): SMH's weighted holdings—led by NVIDIA, TSMC, and Broadcom—have demonstrated impressive revenue expansion, outpacing the broader tech sector. For instance, NVIDIA alone saw revenue surge over 50% YoY thanks to AI datacenter demand.
• Strategic expansion: The underlying companies are deepening their moats through expansions into AI silicon, automotive chips, and next-gen manufacturing nodes. Increased capex across the U.S., Taiwan, and Europe improves supply-chain durability and captures emerging markets such as edge computing and autonomous vehicles.
• Valuation metrics:
• P/E ratio (weighted average, as of latest data): 25.9x, which, though above the S&P 500, is entirely justified given the superlative growth and innovation on offer.
• PEG ratio: 1.32—demonstrating growth is available at a reasonable premium.
• P/S ratio: 7.1, reflecting sector leadership while being undemanding given the rapid EPS and revenue growth anticipated over 2025-2026.
• Structural strengths:
• Innovation leadership: Names like NVIDIA, ASML, AMD, and TSMC define the state of the art in semiconductors, creating sustainable competitive advantages.
• Market share: The ETF’s concentration (top 10 = 72.24% of assets) ensures exposure to sector titans with global reach.
• Strong brand and relevance: These companies are essential to every major digitalization and AI development trend.

As a result, SMH fundamentals robustly justify renewed interest, particularly as forward industry multiples remain compelling compared to anticipated growth trajectories.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity—an essential consideration for institutional and retail investors alike—remains a significant pillar of SMH’s attractiveness:

• Average daily trading volume: 8.37 million shares, ensuring tight bid/ask spreads and ease of execution even for large trades.
• Market cap: $19.81 billion, placing SMH among the most liquid technology ETFs globally.
• Float structure: With a concentrated but high-quality float, price discovery remains efficient, fostering dynamic but orderly valuation adjustments.

Steady or increasing trading volume—despite recent sector turbulence—signals sustained market confidence. This volume profile suggests that both tactical traders (seeking technical inflection points) and strategic allocators (aiming for long-term exposure) can take advantage of SMH’s favorable liquidity while maintaining flexibility.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

SMH’s near- and medium-term outlook is reinforced by a series of visible bullish catalysts and sector-specific positives:

• AI and advanced computing demand: The accelerating adoption of generative AI, machine learning, and autonomy has created unprecedented silicon demand. As the ETF’s largest holding, NVIDIA is a chief beneficiary—channeling growth to the broader SMH portfolio.
• New products and process innovation: Leading holdings are rolling out groundbreaking chip technology (e.g., NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture, TSMC’s 2nm node, Broadcom’s networking chips), which should stimulate another upcycle for margins and market share.
• ESG and “reshoring” initiatives: Moves toward greener semiconductor fabrication and the relocation of supply chains to U.S./Europe are attracting new categories of capital and public sector support.
• Upcoming policy tailwinds: Initiatives such as the U.S. CHIPS Act, expanded R&D subsidies, and Asian tech sovereignty programs create an auspicious regulatory environment for further capex and revenue growth.
• Potential M&A: Continued industry consolidation and vertical integration (including recent landmark deals in chip design and AI IP) could provide bursty upside.
• Cyclical sector re-rating: Having corrected in 2023-2024, valuations across the sector now appear reset, offering ample room for multiple expansion as earnings recover.

Viewed collectively, these elements contribute to a context far more likely to generate upward momentum than not, especially as short-term noise gives way to longer-term fundamental drivers.

Investment Strategies

SMH’s risk/reward profile is aligned with a range of investment approaches, each finding solid arguments for immediate or measured entry:

• Short-term: Positive technical momentum, trading above key near-term averages, and repeated tests of support levels suggest SMH is positioned for potential breakout, especially as earnings revisions and news flow remain supportive.
• Medium-term: The prospect of cyclical demand recovery—buoyed by AI and next-gen computing—positions SMH for outperformance relative to broader indices, especially as leading holdings begin to post stronger quarterly results.
• Long-term: For strategic investors, SMH remains a premier vehicle to access the foundational technologies of the next decade: AI, 5G, autonomous vehicles, and cloud. Exposure to best-of-breed names ensures participation in each stage of industry evolution.

The ETF’s current technical base, proximity to 6-month lows, and destocking of legacy inventories indicate an ideal positioning for those seeking exposure ahead of year-end catalysts and potential sector re-ratings.

Is It the Right Time to Buy SMH?

Summing up, SMH offers a remarkably compelling synthesis of strengths for investors assessing entry in 2025:

• Market positioning: Focused exposure to world-leading semiconductor titans
• Technical setup: Building bullish momentum with defined support and resistance
• Liquidity and transparency: Exceptional trading volume and clear constituent disclosure
• Fundamental depth: Portfolio anchored in exponential growth themes—AI, computing, connectivity
• Catalyst-rich outlook: Visible triggers for re-acceleration, from product innovation to policy support

In light of these converging positives, the fundamentals increasingly justify renewed interest. SMH appears to be entering a new bullish phase, with technicals, sector outlook, and fund structure all pointing toward an environment that is markedly favorable for accumulation. For Singapore-based investors seeking to harness the backbone of the digital future, SMH seems to represent an excellent opportunity at a time when conviction in technology leadership could yield significant rewards.

With so many factors aligning—robust industry dynamics, technical resilience, and a portfolio laser-focused on tomorrow’s most vital technologies—SMH distinctly warrants serious consideration as a core exposure in any forward-thinking portfolio. The timing appears advantageous for those prepared to embrace the next wave of semiconductor-driven innovation.

How to buy SMH stock in Singapore?

Buying SMH stock online is now simple and secure for investors in Singapore, thanks to regulated brokers governed by stringent MAS or global standards. You can purchase SMH ETF units directly (“spot buying”) to own the shares outright, or trade SMH via contracts for difference (CFDs) for leveraged exposure without actual ownership. Each method has its advantages and risks, and the choice depends on your investment goals and risk appetite. To help you make the best decision, you’ll find a dedicated broker comparison further down this page.

Spot Buying

A cash or spot purchase means you buy actual SMH ETF units and become their direct owner. This traditional method is straightforward and suitable for long-term investors seeking exposure to the semiconductor sector. Singapore brokers typically charge a flat commission per order—often around SGD 5 to SGD 10 per trade, depending on the platform.

Concrete example

If the SMH share price is USD 223.40 (roughly SGD 301), a SGD 1,000 investment allows you to buy about 3 shares (1,000 ÷ 301 ≈ 3.3), after factoring in a typical SGD 5 brokerage fee.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your ETF holding is now valued at SGD 1,100.
Result: That's a gross gain of SGD 100, or +10% on your invested capital.

Trading via CFD

CFDs (Contracts for Difference) let you speculate on SMH’s price movements without owning the actual ETF. CFD trading is popular with traders who want to benefit from both rising and falling prices, and who seek to amplify returns via leverage—though this also increases risk. Instead of a fixed commission, you pay a spread (the difference between buy and sell price) and, if you hold overnight, a small daily financing fee.

Example

With a SGD 1,000 deposit and 5x leverage, you gain exposure to SGD 5,000 worth of SMH.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If SMH’s price increases by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: A gain of SGD 400 on your SGD 1,000 position (before spreads and any overnight costs).

Final Advice

It’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, trading platforms, and the available methods before making your investment. Whether you prefer stable, long-term ownership via cash buying or wish to trade price movements with leverage through CFDs, your choice should align with your financial goals and risk profile. For a detailed broker comparison tailored to Singapore residents, simply continue reading below.

Our 7 tips for buying SMH stock

The latest news about SMH

SMH posts a +2% weekly gain, driven by semiconductor sector recovery and strong AI-related demand. Over the past week, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) advanced 2%, reflecting renewed optimism in the semiconductor industry, particularly from rising demand for AI and cloud infrastructure components. This positive price momentum follows a broader rebound in global tech equities and has been fueled by upbeat earnings from top holdings such as NVIDIA and TSMC, both of which have significant operations and customer bases in Asia-Pacific, including Singapore. This uptrend emerges despite ongoing sector volatility and positions SMH favorably as a proxy for global semiconductor innovation, a sector of high relevance to Singapore’s advanced manufacturing and electronics exports.

Short-term technical signals turn bullish, with SMH trading above all key short-term moving averages. Current technical indicators show SMH is exhibiting strength above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day simple moving averages, with a neutral RSI at 60.66 suggesting there is further room for upside before conditions become overbought. This bullish technical setup is confirmed by recent crossover buy signals on key exponential moving averages. For Singapore-based institutional investors and portfolio managers, these signals suggest positive short-term momentum, supporting tactical allocations to SMH in regional growth and technology portfolios.

NVIDIA and TSMC, top SMH holdings, strengthen regional ties with Singapore tech and R&D initiatives. NVIDIA and TSMC together account for over 31% of the ETF’s holdings, and both maintain a notable presence in Singapore’s tech ecosystem. NVIDIA recently expanded its regional partnerships, collaborating with local universities and AI startups to accelerate AI adoption. TSMC continues to service key Southeast Asian clients from its Singapore operations, which have benefited from the city-state’s stable business environment and robust intellectual property protection. These companies’ ongoing investment in Singapore enhances SMH’s relevance for local investors seeking exposure to the region’s semiconductor value chain.

Fund flows stabilize after previous outflows, signaling renewed investor confidence in semiconductor equities. SMH has reversed its trend of multi-month net outflows, recording a positive one-month fund flow of +0.60%. This stabilization reflects renewed confidence in the sector, possibly driven by visible signs of cyclical recovery and the resolution of some supply chain bottlenecks. For Singapore’s wealth management community and ETF investors, healthy fund flows support liquidity and suggest resilience against recent market volatility in technology and semiconductor assets.

Singapore’s regulatory framework facilitates easy access to SMH for retail and institutional investors. SMH is accessible in Singapore via multiple trading platforms, and its compliance with MAS guidelines ensures that both retail and accredited investors benefit from transparent and efficient exposure to the global semiconductor sector. The ETF’s high liquidity and annual USD-denominated dividend, combined with Singapore’s favorable tax environment for capital gains and dividends, make SMH an attractive vehicle for those seeking to allocate capital to technology megatrends from within the city-state.

FAQ

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P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.